ORIX USA’s Head of Real Estate Credit Dean Dulchinos recently shared his perspective with Connect CRE on the state of commercial real estate following the recent FOMC meeting. Despite higher rates for longer impacting deal flow, we believe the broader CRE market will persevere.
Highlights from Dean:
- Uncertainty in the rates market has suppressed commercial real estate (CRE) deal flow. Dean Dulchinos, head of real estate credit at ORIX USA, told Connect, “We at ORIX USA anticipate continued higher rates for longer will have a dampening effect on new deal flow. We started to see a pickup in Q4-24 and Q1-25 when expectations for rate cuts in 2025 were relatively widely held by the market, but as the events of 2025 raised concerns about higher rates for longer, we saw transaction volume fall off a bit. It’s still steady, but the pace seems a little slower than the last two quarters.”
- Despite this, opportunities remain. Dulchinos highlighted the multifamily sector’s resilience: “We believe the broader CRE environment is less directly impacted by tariffs, and multifamily, in particular, is well-insulated from tariff impact because it is not directly involved in the manufacture or movement of goods and equipment.”